GEELONG isn't supposed to be this good. Winning 38 of 40 games under the AFL's brand of draft-and-salary-cap socialism is like Bill Gates making his first $50 billion in Cuba. The system is designed to prevent such domination.
Yet, Geelong has managed to defy AFL gravity for nearly two years and, barring accidents, will win its second consecutive premiership in the manner of Usain Bolt — easing up at the tape, waving to the crowd and still under the world record.
While the Brisbane Lions won three flags and had a serious crack at a fourth, they were never as far ahead of the field as the 2007-2008 Geelong unit — they weren't minor premiers once. And they had recruiting advantages, such as a merger, that weren't available to other clubs.
Geelong's only concession has been the father-son rule, which, admittedly, delivered two of the AFL's top 10 players (Gary Ablett and Matthew Scarlett) for third-round draft picks.
But the bountiful Geelong gene pool also can be seen as a form of compensation for the fact that the Cats never bottomed out; their highest draft pick over the past dozen years is pick seven. To Cat insiders, Scarlett and Ablett are just their answer to Adam Cooney and Ryan Griffen or Nick Riewoldt and Luke Ball. They reckon the sons are rightfully theirs. Some from rival clubs believe the gap is largely due to the absence of genuine challengers. West Coast, which might have pushed the Cats, collapsed prematurely; North and the Bulldogs don't have Geelong's talent. Hawthorn isn't seasoned enough.
The teams with sufficient maturity (ie, players who've played 100 games) aren't as good, and the teams with dangerous talent aren't as mature.
What has been Geelong's edge over the competition? Brisbane had a merger and zone, and was well-managed enough — the low-flying planes, oxygen masks etc — to take full toll of its concessions. Essendon, circa 1999-2001, was ahead of the pack in terms of trading hacks for picks (see Matthew Lloyd, Scott Lucas) and in identifying Fremantle as the Alan Bond of the AFL. To borrow from the late Kerry Packer, you only get one Fremantle in a lifetime.
Geelong's edge over the competition isn't as easily identified. Frank Costa is fond of saying that it's "good people" — an all-encompassing term that covers administrators such as Brian Cook, coach Mark Thompson and the players, led by Tom Harley.
Other clubs tend to view Geelong's advantage in less idealistic terms, and just gaze at the envied playing list. A midfield of Ablett, Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood and Joel Corey is going to mince most opposition; add Scarlett, Harley, Milburn and Mackie down back, throw in a sober Steve Johnson and disciplined Cameron Mooney, and, given a decent run with injuries, there's your 38 out of 40.
There's a compelling argument that Geelong's actual "edge" was its patience; that the Cats actually walked the talk and truly embraced a long-term view, recognising when Mark Thompson arrived in 1999 that a premiership would probably take seven or eight years.
All clubs mouth the platitudes about "long-term" and "youth," but few of them are willing to stick with a coach for seven or eight years without much success, and few hold their nerve on an uncompromising youth policy when the natives get restless and ex-players begin calling for heads.
Not that Geelong was ideologically pure in its desire to build a team from scratch. The Cats were lucky that no one wanted to play for them, that they couldn't acquire the key forward they so desperately sought, and were forced to stick with kids.
They wanted Jade Rawlings. He didn't want to play for them. Geelong was hot for Daniel Bradshaw. He wasn't keen on them either. Even a declining Sav Rocca turned them down.
Leigh Colbert's desertion was seen as calamitous when the Cats were $7 million in debt with an ageing list. In retrospect, Colbert's flight was a gift — his trade delivered Mooney and Corey Enright and encouraged the club to take stock of its playing culture.
Geelong, paradoxically, might have benefited, too, from the fact that it was broke when Costa, Cook and Thompson took charge. The club couldn't afford to pay big dollars, and was compelled to draft youngsters. "There was no other course for us to take," said an insider.
Even their most disappointing season, 2006, rewarded them with the recruitment of Selwood, an instant star and likely future captain.
The Cats stayed the course, and didn't deviate much from the game plan. And on occasion, they were blessed with the right kind of misfortune.
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